One thing bound to emerge from Labour's defeat in the Waddon by election last Thursday was speculation about how long Cllr Tony Newman can last as leader of the group.

Certainly after the count there were a lot of tongues wagging but the noise was coming from the Conservative camp rather than from within Cllr Newman's own ranks.

The Tories were talking about stalking horses lying in the wings and pointing out that the only smiley Labour face during the evening belonged to Bensham Manor councillor, Alison Roberts who they obviously view as the heir apparent.

It is always difficult to unravel the intricacies of internal Labour politics but the idea that the group is ready to ditch Cllr Newman may be more of a Tory pipedream than any kind of immediate reality.

For while Labour lost last Thursday, the defeat by 240 votes was hardly a hammering and the party did pick up 38 per cent of the votes cast.

Importantly there is only a year and a bit before the next full round of council elections and the question Labour councillors must ask themselves is do they want to enter this period with someone new at the helm.

Cllr Newman himself seemed after Thursday night to be fairly relaxed about his future and the indications are that those thought most likely to want to make a challenge are unlikely to desert Cllr Newman at this stage.

Cllr Stuart Collins, one of Labour's two deputy leaders, has, backbenchers will tell you, has long fancied the job.

But equally the feeling is he will not put his own loyalty to the test when the group's annual general meeting comes round in May.

Likewise the word is that Cllr Butler may not be quite so keen to move up as the Tories seem to think she is.

The other front runner as replacement would normally be seen as Cllr Gerry Ryan, one of Labour's more flamboyant performers.

The simple fact is he is almost certainly too tied up in his campaign to win back the Croydon Central Parliamentary for Labour at the next general election to want to take on the extra responsibility of leading the group now.

Labour was hit hard when it lost control of the council in 2006 and it is difficult to see the Labour government taking a massive boost in popularity before the next general election.

If things don't get better across the board for Labour this leaves the ominous prospect of the party locally taking another body blow in May 2010 and seeing more of its councillors losing out.

There may still be a change of leadership before then but it would be a brave man or woman who challenged Cllr Newman with such a prospect at the back of their minds.

They may, of course, not be so reticent should the worst happen in 2010.